Modeling

Oceanographic modeling

The oceanographic model of Puget Sound and surrounding waters used in this program is being developed by Parker MacCready, Neil Banas, and Dave Sutherland through the MoSSea program (Modeling the Salish Sea), sponsored by UW PRISM. The MoSSea website provides an overview of the model, animations of salinity, temperature, and more from a 2006 hindcast, extensive information on how the model performs relative to data from the many Puget Sound / Salish Sea monitoring programs.

For a direct link to model animations, click here.

To read a manuscript by Sutherland et al. submitted to J. Phys. Oceanogr. documenting the 2006 hindcast in detail, click here.

Regional climate projections

Regional climate simulations have been completed for this project using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km grid spacing and forced by large-scale boundary conditions. Two long regional climate model simulations have been completed. One is a retrospective simulation (1948-2011) using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis as boundary conditions for WRF. The second is a 1970-2070 climate projection forced by ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute, Hamburg) global climate model output, which will be used in addition to an existing WRF simulation forced by CCSM3 (i.e., Community Climate System Model Version 3) boundary conditions. These results will be used to support two tasks: 1) To provide forcing fields to the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to simulate the circulation and biophysics of the coastal ocean and Puget Sound. The atmospheric forcing fields will be supplemented with freshwater river inputs derived from previous research. 2) The regional climate simulations will be used to analyze the future changes and variability of coastal winds. Results for the change in coastal winds from the current climate (1970-1999) to the future climate (2040-2069) are shown in the figure below. Contours show the streamlines for the current summertime surface (10­ m) winds and shading indicates the change in meridional (along-shore) winds, with blue indicating an increase in southerly winds.

Announcements

The 2013 preliminary Alexandrium cyst map is available!
Mar 20, 2013 2:48 PM
Check out the 2013 preliminary cyst map by clicking on the "Cyst Maps" tab to the left of your screen.
King 5 and KUOW cover the 2012 Alexandrium cyst survey!
May 27, 2011 10:48 AM
Glenn Farley from King 5 and Ashley Ahearn from KUOW joined the crew aboard the R/V Clifford A. B...
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Send questions about this workspace to neil banas.